Energy demands will change with 13.2M electric vehicles by 2030

Distribution network upgrades would be required to improve power transmission across the country.
Photo: Fotolia

CALGARY — The rapid adoption of electric vehicles could mean as many as 13.2 million EVs on the road by 2030 according to EY research.

The Canadian electric vehicle transition — the difference between evolution and revolution report outlines how all EV adoption scenarios — rapid, moderate or slow — will have an important impact on Canadian oil and gas and power and utilities companies in the years ahead. EY notes Canada is the tenth fastest adopter of EVs in the world, with sales growing 165% year-over-year in 2018.

The research suggests rapid adoption – with EVs representing 30% of Canada’s vehicle stock, compared to less than 3% today – would reduce domestic oil consumption by roughly 252,000 barrels per day and could trigger convergence of energy and power utilities companies.

“Diversifying portfolios will be crucial for oil and gas companies in a rapid-adoption future,” says Lance Mortlock, EY Canada oil and gas leader. “To stay relevant and ensure profitable revenue streams, they’ll need to invest more in clean energy, petrochemical products and access to tidewater to enter new markets.”

Rapid adoption could also cause an 11% spike in Canadian electricity demand, requiring utilities to make significant investments in existing grid infrastructure to allow consumers to charge cars at home and in public spaces.

Distribution network upgrades would also be required to improve power transmission across the country, including to rural areas.

“A dramatic increase in electricity demand would likely result in new power and utilities players coming to market,” says Daniela Carcasole, EY Canada power and utilities leader. “This could open up a number of collaboration opportunities for existing companies — either through M&A or joint ventures with hotels, restaurants, technology companies and retail stores to offer easy and convenient vehicle charging to consumers.”

Even a moderate adoption scenario — with 6.5 million EVs on Canadian roads by 2030 — would require a 5.5% increase in electricity demand.