Boosted exports and manufacturing recovery will drive Ontario’s growth: RBC

The bank forecasts Ontario's economy will grow by 2.2% in 2012, slightly higher than the national average.

September 10, 2012   by PLANT STAFF

TORONTO—Further recovery in provincial exports will drive Ontario’s economic growth in 2012, according RBC’s Economics Provincial Outlook.

The bank forecasts the provincial economy will grow at a slightly faster rate of 2.2% this year compared to 1.9 per cent in 2011, but still well short of the 3.4% 10-year average preceding the recession.

That forecast, however, is still slightly stronger that the projected national real GDP growth of 2.1%.

“While the private sector is showing signs of strengthening, more restrained public sector spending continues to somewhat inhibit growth, keeping the overall pace moderate in Ontario,” said Craig Wright, senior vice-president and chief economist, RBC.

An encouraging trend for Ontario’s economy has been the further recovery in manufacturing, RBC suggests. Although the recovery in manufacturing has not been uniform across the sector, there have been substantial gains in the auto industry.

“Ontario’s auto industry rode the wave of strengthening motor vehicle sales in the US and Canadian markets with assembly of light vehicles surging by more than 19% during the first seven months of this year. In fact, new motor vehicle production is now almost at pre-recession levels,” said Wright.

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