Ontario exports to outperform Canada’s
Ontario’s international exports are forecast to grow by 14% in 2010 and 7% in 2011, outperforming the national average, according to EDC report.
OTTAWA: Ontario’s international exports are forecast to grow by 14% in 2010 and 7% in 2011, outperforming the national average, according to a provincial forecast by Export Development Canada (EDC).
“The province can tip its hat to the huge rebound in the auto sector and robust gold production,” said EDC’s chief economist, Peter Hall
National export growth is to rise by 12% in 2010, then fall back to 6% in 2011.
“There were many who considered Ontario exports a write-off only a few months, but the auto sector has experienced a remarkable about-face, and exports of industrial goods are also in the double-digit growth zone,” he said.
The auto sector, at 29% of Ontario’s total exports, is forecast to grow by a stunning 43% this year and a further 10% in 2011.
Industrial goods have claimed top spot among Ontario exports at 32%. The EDC says they will see growth of 15% this year and 4% in 2011.
“One of the few export sectors to move against the tide in 2009 was precious metals, as prices soared on heightened economic and financial system uncertainty,” Hall said. “High prices have spurred exploration and development in the mining industry, boosting near-term production.”
He said steel capacity has been coming back online “cautiously” this year. Rebounding demand in North America coupled with strong sales to Brazil will lead to double-digit increases in shipments this year, but next year’s growth will be constrained by weak prices.
The machinery and equipment industry is the third province’s largest export sector, accounting for 17% of the total. Adding to the 20% decline in 2009 is another 10% reduction this year, but 2011 should see a 7% increase.
He said machinery and equipment exports will remain at low levels until the global recovery gets into full swing. “At that point, increased activity will begin to soak up excess industrial capacity, boosting investment. But that point is still more than a year away.”
EDC predicts Canada’s economy will grow 3% this year and 2.2% in 2011. Global growth of 4.3% is expected this year and 3.9% in 2011.
Click here for EDC’s Global Export Forecast.