Oil sands emissions over cap by 2030 unless GHG intensity falls: report
CERI scenario envisions production rising from 2.8 million bpd in 2017 to 4.1 million bpd in 2030.
CALGARY — The Canadian Energy Research Institute says Canada’s oil sands production could grow to the point that its emissions exceed the Alberta government’s cap of 100 million tonnes per year by 2030.
CERI says on-site emissions from oil sands producers would grow from about 72 million tonnes in 2017 to 103 million tonnes in 2030 under a reference case scenario – unless the industry continues to develop new ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions per barrel.
The scenario envisions oil sands production rising from 2.8 million barrels per day in 2017 to 3.2 million bpd by 2020 and 4.1 million bpd in 2030.
The report says oil sands output would peak at 5.5 million bpd by 2038.
CERI says bitumen and upgraded synthetic crude made up 61 per cent of total Canadian oil and 82% of Alberta’s total oil production in 2017.
The report estimates a new steam-driven oil sands project would need just over US$60 per barrel benchmark crude prices to be profitable and an expansion project needs just US$51.60 per barrel, making both financially feasible as crude prices rose to about US$70 per barrel on May 7.